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Value Questions - WE500D soft plastic

Started by Slal, September 29, 2014, 08:43:59 PM

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TelePlay

Quote from: Slal on October 11, 2014, 04:08:37 PM
Good to know crack can be covered up some day.  Have to read up on topic.  Am sure it's probably pinned somewhere. 

This is one of several topics that address this restoration technique. I've linked to the middle of the topic but the entire topic, all 4 pages, are applicable to fixing cracks and filling gaps. It's a good place to start.

http://www.classicrotaryphones.com/forum/index.php?topic=5059.msg63237#msg63237

Slal

Thanks for the tip. Painting MEK (2-Butanone?) onto inside of shell to get paste w/less solvent in it seems promising.

Problem is search reveals MEK expensive at $26.50 for 500ml (+ S&H.) 

That's over 25% cost of phone itself! 

So before spending any more money might have to do cost / benefit here.

Is additional payout for a $100 phone in this color worth it?


thx

--Bruce

unbeldi

I just checked Home Depot online, and they list MEK at $9.96 for a quart.

Yes, MEK is methyl ethyl ketone, butanone, or butan-2-one, or 2-butanone.

Acetone is dimethyl ketone, or propanone, or propan-2-one, or 2-propanone, and the price is about the same.





Slal

Thanks.  Will look into MEK at Home Depot & create topic under "restoration" if decide worth the risk of me damaging phone.

But back to values exercise & fun with math.  As I see more and more "Buy it Now" & "Best Offer" listings, my eventual goal is to get 30 scores in each group (color) so I can get mean, median, mode & correlation coefficient.  Then new collectors like myself will have some idea of market values when negotiating.

Can work both ways.  If sellers lurk, they can find out that selling a phone that's only worth X amount for a ridiculous Y amount = product will probably sit there a while. ; )

Still need at least one value for white, so will try one last time.

Someone take a guess for white or make up a number!  Can't do anything with zero... ; )
 
Results so far.   

Aqua:
2 results - mean = $360.99

Blue:
3 results - mean = $682.39

Brown:
2 results - mean = $537.55

Dark Beige
2 results - mean = $435

Dark Gray:
1 result at $360.57

Green:
2 results - mean = 63.50

Ivory:
2 results both = $69.00

Light Gray:
1 result at $63.00

Pink:
1 result at $75

Red:
3 results - mean = $42

Yellow:
1 result at $19.95

White:
no data

--Bruce

unbeldi

Quote from: Slal on October 14, 2014, 03:48:11 PM
Thanks.  Will look into MEK at Home Depot & create topic under "restoration" if decide worth the risk of me damaging phone.

But back to values exercise & fun with math.  As I see more and more "Buy it Now" & "Best Offer" listings, my eventual goal is to get 30 scores in each group (color) so I can get mean, median, mode & correlation coefficient.  Then new collectors like myself will have some idea of market values when negotiating.

Can work both ways.  If sellers lurk, they can find out that selling a phone that's only worth X amount for a ridiculous Y amount = product will probably sit there a while. ; )

Still need at least one value for white, so will try one last time.

Someone take a guess for white or make up a number!  Can't do anything with zero... ; )
 
Results so far.   
....

IMHO, none of these results matter or have any significance other that than that there are sellers and buyers.  The eBay selling mechanism does not yield a reliable scale, because many items are listed by unknowledgeable sellers at BIN prices, being snatched, and many get listed at too high a price so that only someone for whom price does not matter will buy. If you are going to determine going market prices, you have to select only those sales that are truly auctions and have several bidders involved for some period of time.  There are still many phones that are sold cheaply because they by chance are not exposed to a wider audience.

There really is no way to predict a price on eBay, other than the knowledge that certain phones most likely sell high, like a blue 302 or 500.

How did you arrive at ~$360 average, for example, for aqua sets?  I sold one for $230 some time ago, and thought that was the highest I had seen up to that time, but I know there was at least one higher sale since.

Slal

Quote from: unbeldi on October 14, 2014, 04:02:33 PM

IMHO, none of these results matter or have any significance other that than that there are sellers and buyers.  The eBay selling mechanism does not yield a reliable scale, because many items are listed by unknowledgeable sellers at BIN prices, being snatched, and many get listed at too high a price so that only someone for whom price does not matter will buy. If you are going to determine going market prices, you have to select only those sales that are truly auctions and have several bidders involved for some period of time.  There are still many phones that are sold cheaply because they by chance are not exposed to a wider audience.

There really is no way to predict a price on eBay, other than the knowledge that certain phones most likely sell high, like a blue 302 or 500.

How did you arrive at ~$360 average, for example, for aqua sets?  I sold one for $230 some time ago, and thought that was the highest I had seen up to that time, but I know there was at least one higher sale since.

Good call on error.  My bad.  Cut & pasted sum not mean. 

Details for Aqua:
$38.99 + $322.00 = $360.99  / 2 = $180.50 (eBay listings: 251625663973 & 251599951311)

Not sure understand about auctions.  I'd argue there is no way to reliably predict the outcome because people aren't rational.  Otherwise how could we make a game of it!

First thing's first though.  Is this exercise even valid?   (i.e. for some colors, are they in fact, even soft plastic?)

Assuming data is valid, I agree.  Reliability is always second most important.

A truism to say BIN prices are assigned by the seller.  Assume OBO is probably within a given range of seller BIN-- percent or (a bit more fun) standard deviation units. 

My hypo is that average (and perhaps median) of completed listings can be a reliable tool for buyers. 

Of course I can't say that until refute the opposite.   ("Average prices are not reliable." = false.)  Confidence level or 'alpha' set at p < .10

So verdict still out & might not even be possible.  (Which is why I like the challenge.) Can I get minimum sampling?  Be a very long little side project!  ; )

Thanks for thoughtful reply though.  You raise some good points-- esp. how extreme scores will skew.

--Bruce