Irma, the Hurricane - September 2017

[19and41]

Looks like the next Hurricane is heading towards Florida.

[HarrySmith]

Yeah and it's a big one! Everyone here is starting to get a little worried!

Grocery stores sold out of water on Sunday!

[TelePlay]

Looks like the next Hurricane is heading towards Florida.

The jet stream has now dipped down to almost Kentucky, was straight across the US/Canada border a few days ago. With this dip, I see the expert prognosticators have started a possible second track to the north and if the jet stream drops lower, it may be that Irma will not hit any land. The current surface analysis also has several low pressure cells (they rotate counter clockwise) below the jet stream which would create surface winds that could push Irma out to sea.

But what do I know. They have all those high powered computer models with many parameters to adjust to make the track look how they want it to be, makes for increased viewership/ratings.

Then again, if the jet stream heads north, flattens out, and the surface conditions become high pressure cells (rotate clockwise), it could be that New Orleans would be the landfall area.

Will be interesting to watch how the weather boys treat this. Will know for sure in less than 2 weeks.

[19and41]

At least as far as water goes, one could put up a few containers of water from the tap to keep for such occasions.  Just rotate them periodically. 

[KaiserFrazer67]

The jet stream has now dipped down to almost Kentucky, was straight across the US/Canada border a few days ago. With this dip, I see the expert prognosticators have started a possible second track to the north and if the jet stream drops lower, it may be that Irma will not hit any land. The current surface analysis also has several low pressure cells (they rotate counter clockwise) below the jet stream which would create surface winds that could push Irma out to sea.

But what do I know. They have all those high powered computer models with many parameters to adjust to make the track look how they want it to be, makes for increased viewership/ratings.

Then again, if the jet stream heads north, flattens out, and the surface conditions become high pressure cells (rotate clockwise), it could be that New Orleans would be the landfall area.

Will be interesting to watch how the weather boys treat this. Will know for sure in less than 2 weeks.

Thanks for showing those computer maps of the Jet Stream.  Well, at least that explains why it's been so unseasonably cool here in Wisconsin.

[TelePlay]

Thanks for showing those computer maps of the Jet Stream.  Well, at least that explains why it's been so unseasonably cool here in Wisconsin.

Yes, they are predicting the low 40s tonight. And probably because the jet stream has now dropped into northern Alabama.

It's almost like that huge low pressure cell called Irma is pulling the jet stream down.

No one has any idea of where this storm will go until a day before it gets there, just probability based on computer models they and their friends wrote. Too many rapidly changing parameters to predict 5 days out.

The bottom image are a composite of all the mathematical models used by as many groups as there are tracks. One has it moving through Wisconsin, another Toronto. Based on this compilation, if I lived in Florida, this would be a great time to visit Lake Louise.

[TelePlay]

Well, while it passed the alternate track spur, it has now moved east a bit from yesterday's projected track and the jet stream is still down to Alabama. Mathematical tracks have also moved noticeably to the east. Still 4 to 5 days out from landfall.

[HarrySmith]

Everyone is freaking out down here! Ridiculous long lines at gas stations, no water in stores. Unreal! People fighting over a spot in line, gas stations are now posting uniformed cops at the pumps!

[19and41]

I had always heard about this storm.  I wonder if this one will eclipse it.  There wasn't much population in comparison to that of today.

http://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/local/2015/08/31/florida-frontiers-labor-day-hurricane-1935/71451702/

[mariepr]

At this writing the 5-day cone projects Irma to come up the Florida east coast.  This is really serious stuff with Category 5 wind speed.   What gets me though is the way Floridians taunt those of us living in the NE when a huge snow storm is projected with something like, "Eighty degrees and sunny down here!"  But we in the NE don't taunt our SE neighbors with phrases like, "Calm and dry up here!"   

[twocvbloke]

It's the same in the UK, the south always boasts about how their summers are hot and dry and that "It's grim up north", then the rains come they end up flooded out and us up north are like "Hmm, it's grim down south!"...

[19and41]

The projectors are indeed paralleling this storm with the 1935 storm.  That would tie for the strongest ever recorded.

[TelePlay]

Seems the "official" track is the white line on the image posted in reply #698 above. Local weather guy today said the storm track seems to be moving east but the maps haven't been updated. He also said the barometric pressure increased a bit, the storm weakened a bit momentarily, but they don't  know why or what it will do (get weaker or stronger) or where it will go.

Regardless of where the storm actually goes over the next few days, once they said it would hit Miami, they have to stick with it, as the worst case scenario. If they were to change the track and say the storm will turn north and then north east heading out to sea and it doesn't, it hits Miami, the prognosticators would look foolish, ignorant and/or wrong. So, once they put the landfall on Miami, if the storm goes out to sea, they can more easily come up with some excuse of getting it wrong buried under the big story of what a relief it was to the people of Miami. And if it misses Miami and heads up to South Carolina, give the media bobble heads a few more days to panic more people.

I see the prevailing surface winds still blowing our of the southwest across the whole area, the jet stream is still deep into that area and the whole SE area is covered by high pressure following the jet stream. Comes down to the irresistible force hitting the immovable object situation so while the hype makes for good fodder to fill time on live TV, no one really knows where this storm is going to go until a day before it gets there, moving at 15 mph

[19and41]

I think one would have to be really good at prognostication of curling matches or balloon races to even nearly make a correct prediction of the storm's path.   

[TelePlay]

With two or so days to go befor landfall, it's not looking good for most of Florida, Georgia and parts of South Carolina.