Auction 341: WE 1957 Rose Beige 500 C/D - Ended 9-02-18

[Pourme]

$170.00

[andre_janew]

$120

[TelePlay]

$193.50 - revised guess

[Sargeguy]

$180 (late guess -doesn't count)

[TelePlay]

Contest Winner:  TelePlay
Guessed Price:  $193.50
Total Wins: 30

Auction Winner: h***o ( 2125 )
Winning Price:   $188.50
Bidders:  6
Bids:  10


Contest Standings:  http://www.classicrotaryphones.com/forum/index.php?topic=4198.msg51445#msg51445

CRPF Hall of Fame:   http://www.classicrotaryphones.com/forum/index.php?topic=138.msg976#msg976]


Thanks to all who played along in this contest.

[Russ Kirk]

So, are the prices for soft 500s falling?

[RotarDad]

Russ - I don't think prices have fallen recently.  The Rose Beige usually brings the least money of the "big four" uncommon 500 colors.  This one also didn't have the best picture presentation, making the true color of the Beige harder to determine.  Had the color shown less fade (more Rose), it probably would have gone higher.  On this one the line cord is obviously later light beige (-60), but it seems to match the phone pretty well.

[david@london]

Congrats, John, on notching up 30 wins!

How do you do it?

You are definitely in line to receive a Special Mention in the archives at............

[Doug Rose]

Very cool Teleplay John. 30 wins is 30 wins.

Last to win 30 was Denny McLain for Dennis' Tigers in '68.

Rare air indeed  .....Doug

[Pourme]

Very cool Teleplay John. 30 wins is 30 wins.

Last to win 30 was Denny McLain for Dennis' Tigers in '68.

Rare air indeed  .....Doug

...and he always waits until the last couple of hours and takes what is "left over"...He makes it look easy!

[TelePlay]

...and he always waits until the last couple of hours and takes what is "left over"...He makes it look easy!

Thanks to all who noticed and posted about my 30th win. The most important thing I have done to get there is to have played in almost every contest beginning with contest #73 some six and a half years ago.

After starting to run the contests, I used to guess at exactly 24 hours left in the auction, the deadline for guesses, so anyone guessing after my guess would be considered late under the rules. But, I then realized my guess at that end point was reminding others who forgot about the contest to take a guess. So, 13 contests ago, I started to guess with 2 days, 48 hours, to go so those who forgot to guess would have a full day to get a guess in. At that time, I also stated in the contest work up that I would lock the topic with exactly 24 hours to go. This was to keep me from having to deal with a late guess that may have won outside of the rules. Just trying to be fair to everyone.

And, yes, guessing late in the game forces me to take what is left over and I usually go half way between two guesses that have large gap but are in the range I think the phone will end up selling for on eBay. It's knowing what similar phones have sold for in the past (and the contest CRPF Auction Contest INDEX and PHONE IMAGES can be of help there), knowing the current strength of the market for the contest phone, evaluating the bids and bidders that are on record in the eBay bid history at the time I take a guess and then trying to figure out what may happen in the last 5 seconds of the auction. That's my game plan for guessing that has helped me get into the ball park and sometimes win.

My first contest guess was in #73 (4/9/2012) and my first win was in #78 (12/1/2012). I've played in most contests since then so getting 30 wins over 268 guesses is a batting average of 11.2% and with about 15 to 20 members playing each contest, on average, anyone would have about a 6% chance of winning if the guesses were random. So, by applying my now top secret method to picking an educated selling price given above, I doubled the random chance of winning. That said, I expect other members to now start winning more contests.

I would also like to see more of our newer members start to play as well, something I've said in the first paragraph of every contest, "All forum members are welcome and encouraged to guess," but it's rare that a newer members plays along and sometimes they win, like FabPhones for a recent example. There is no wrong guess, just one lucky winning guess.

Now that everyone knows my strategy, going forward they will have a one day window at the end of the contest guessing period to use my method and hopefully win and win and win. eBay is eBay and no one, except Sargeguy on wood phone related things, has any idea of what a contest item will sell for when the auction ends. The one important point that I stated above and was stated in each auction contest prior to #300, when the contest format was simplified, were in the words of our own beloved and wise twocvbloke who said,   ---> "You gotta be in it to win it !!!" "

I really would like to see others win and now having hit 30, I really don't need to win again but I will continue to guess in every contest, using my strategy laid out above for any or all to use, and who knows, I might reluctantly hit 31 someday. I say reluctantly because I really don't need anymore wins and would like to see others get onto and rise up the contest standings. Knowing my method, there is no reason for anyone not to notch more wins.